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Now that we know which four teams have advanced to the semifinals in Las Vegas, it’s much easier to predict who will win the NBA Cup MVP.
Last year, LeBron James took home the inaugural award, but he won’t have a chance to defend his crown this time around. The winner this year will come from the Thunder, Rockets, Bucks or Hawks. There are still a few games left, but past success in previous games also matters.
According to NBA.comthe award will be given “based on the players’ performance in both group play and the knockout rounds.” Meanwhile, even for those who don’t win the NBA Cup MVP, the league will also award all-tournament honors.
To add some color to how everyone is doing so far, we wanted to provide some overarching metrics that contextualized player performance during group play and the knockout rounds. All stats refer to these games only, not all other regular season games.
As we mentioned before last seasonwe asked a basketball data scientist who works for an NBA team to tell us what the best stat is, using only box score data. This person recommended that we use a daily RAPM estimate (DRE) of Kevin Ferrigan.
You can learn more about the metric via Nylon calculus. But what you need to know is that it’s a bit like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) with weights derived from RAPM (which you can learn more about here) instead of more arbitrary weights.
In the meantime, we’ve also added how everyone fared The HoopsHype Global Rating and during the NBA Cup. For a detailed breakdown of these statistics, click here. Player Impact Evaluation (PIE) percentile ranking is additionally indicated provided by NBA.combut with our minute regression added.
Overall, for each player we included percentile rankings from seeding matches and knockout rounds in regressed DRE over 48 minutes, as well as global rating and PIE. Also attached to each player is their current betting odds provided via BetMGM.
Here’s how we’d give out the awards based on what we’ve seen so far and what we can expect going forward.
(Photo by Joshua Gately/Getty Images)
Depending on how it all shakes out, Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has an outside chance to win both the regular season MVP and the NBA Cup MVP in the same season. Thanks to his unreal game of tughe currently leads all players in the tournament in scoring by quite a large margin, currently nearly 40 points more than any other active participant. He also leads the tournament in scoring as Oklahoma City outscored opponents by 78 points with him on the floor.
Current Odds: +140
Implied probability: 41.7 percent
Global rating percentile via HoopsHype: 100
Player Impact Rating Percentile: 100
DRE/48 Regressive Percentile: 99.8
Images by Benny Sieu-Imagn
Current Odds: +300
Implied probability: 25.0 percent
Global rating percentile via HoopsHype: 99.5
Player Impact Rating Percentile: 99.3
DRE/48 Regressive Percentile: 98.8
If the Thunder are the favorites to win the West, the Bucks are the favorites to win the East, and that is largely due to the phenomenal play of Giannis Antetokounmpo. He trails only Gilgeous-Alexander among active players in scoring while shooting 70.6 percent from the field in the tournament so far, looking especially unstoppable near the basket. He also leads all active players in blocks on the defensive end of the floor.
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Current Odds: +650
Implied probability: 13.3 percent
Global rating percentile via HoopsHype: 98.1
Player Impact Rating Percentile: 99.1
DRE/48 Regressed Percentile: 99.5
The other team representing the West in the semifinals is the Rockets, and this tournament, Houston’s Alperen Sengun has been playing very well. His versatility is on full display with 20.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game. He trails only Gilgeous-Alexander in plus-minus (60), while on the court, despite one loss.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Current Odds: +1100
Implied probability: 8.3 percent
Global rating percentile via HoopsHype: 97.9
Player Impact Rating Percentile: 98.3
DRE/48 Regressive Percentile: 97.4
This tournament is a legitimate coming out party for Jaylen Johnson, a breakout forward for the Hawks. He is contesting the opponent’s perimeter and leads the NBA Cup in rebounds (62) all-time. Johnson is averaging a ridiculous 20.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.8 blocks per game. He recorded a double-double in four of the five games he played, leading all players in the tournament omissions made.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images
Current Odds: +1000
Implied probability: 9.1 percent
Global rating percentile via HoopsHype: 84.9
Player Impact Rating Percentile: 87.7
DRE/48 Regressed Percentile: 64.5
This bit is based more on projected future success than past NBA Cup performance. Atlanta’s Trae Young is averaging 21.5 points and 11.0 assists per game, leading the entire tournament with 44 assists. But he shot just 30.0 percent from the arc and averaged 5.0 turnovers per game, both expensive numbers.
Images by Benny Sieu-Imagn
Current Odds: +1200
Implied probability: 7.7 percent
Global rating percentile via HoopsHype: 99.3
Player Impact Rating Percentile: 97.9
DRE/48 Regressive Percentile: 95.0
The biggest obstacle for Damian Lillard to win the NBA MVP Trophy is that his teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo may be standing in his way. If the Bucks win the tournament, as of right now, the nod will likely go to Antetokounmpo. But among active players, Lillard trails only Gilges-Alexander and his fellow Milwaukee superstar. The guard ranks second among active players in assists. He leads all players in the tournament in three-pointers (17) while shooting 48.6 percent from beyond the arc.
Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
Current Odds: +4000
Implied probability: 2.4 percent
Global rating percentile via HoopsHype: 95.0
Player Impact Rating Percentile: 94.3
DRE/48 Regressed Percentile: 97.6
Like Lillard, the biggest thing stopping Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams from taking home that trophy is likely Gilgeous-Alexander’s dominance. If it weren’t for Gilgeous-Alexander, even more people would realize how well Williams plays on both ends of the court. He is averaging 21.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists while recording 2.4 steals per game. Williams trails only Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels in total deflections (20) during the NBA Cup.
(Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Current Odds: +12500
Implied probability: 0.8 percent
Global rating percentile via HoopsHype: 92.7
Player Impact Rating Percentile: 83.5
DRE/48 Regressed Percentile: 93.8
While Atlanta’s Johnson is their breakout and Young gives them the best chance to win going forward, we can’t overlook what Dyson Daniels is doing right now either. He’s having a solid tournament offensively with 15.4 points and 4.2 assists, but he’s doing his job as a top-notch defensive playmaker. He averaged 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 steals and 1.0 blocks per game while leading all players in steals (19) during the NBA Cup.
