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You can’t ban foam. You can’t ban madness, especially when it pays. You can’t tell insiders or big data analytics specialist Palantir to take profits. You can’t stop Applovin’s executives from bailing out here, and you can’t tell buyers of that mobile game ad software company that it might not be as valuable as they think. We sure would like to. We want a healthy market where we don’t have all kinds of stocks roaring with only the smell of profits. We want to skedaddle these buyers because we don’t want NYSE-listed companies to be crazy and the Nasdaq 100 to be a kind of asylum. We have so much froth and measures of retail excitement right now. They’re all bright reds, but they’re still not bright reds or a red that will burn your retinas. Palantir and Applovin are representative of the challenges we face right now. Both stocks traded like GameStop did a few years ago during the meme stock frenzy. However, unlike the stench of GameStop, these are real companies, very real. PLTR YTD mountain Palantir YTD Many people are counting on Palantir to change how the Pentagon works. The company’s stock is really cheap in terms of the 40 rule, where we add the growth rate and its free cash flow margin and see that 40 is the best. It does so, entering north of 50, giving people the “right”. ” Institutions continue to pay for the now-sacred ServiceNow. Yes, Palantir is profitable. Yes, it’s run by the brilliant but incredibly arrogant Alex Karp, who rips off those who really want to tell the story through margarine. The scorn is so dripping, so painful, that that you really want the stock to fail, even though you like everything they do, and that the Pentagon might be hoping to stop using it to harm humans and join the rest on the 21st if you recognize that there may be hope. But the only thing we know about this 173 billion dollar company is that there are people who wake up in the morning – if they go to sleep – because there are no “sellers” on foot at that time except for the people who put in the orders that are almost always taken.I see it going higher and these buyers going into a pit of fracking sand I keep thinking they are, because I hate to see them in this “feet-up” way. Come up and see for yourself. It’s a contest of wills to drive stocks up, a game where buyers keep winning and sellers keep losing. It’s a tug of war where the bulls trash the bears every morning. Because the bulls always win, and we know based on the stock price, there is a sense of immortality that will only trickle down to other “Palantir”s that are bagged and shot but not liquidated. In that sense, we really wish there was pump and dump, because then we could say, “Oh, that’s just pump and dump,” and we could ignore all the soon-to-be stocks, buyers, and ephemera. Once we all know the scheme they will disappear. It’s the opposite. A real company, real stock, real profits to be taken, except they won’t be, because that’s not what “these people” do. These buyers know that Palantir’s stock is on the rise. It’s a $173 billion stock that won’t stop until it plays, I don’t know $200 billion, $300 billion in market cap? Do “those people” even care? How can I be so sure and who are “these people”? I can be sure because at one point I was one of them. When I was at Goldman Sachs advising wealthy individuals and small family offices, the 1980s were roaring. I never went to sleep those days, just a brain that couldn’t stop trying to memorize every price and play every move. I had the prices of hundreds of stocks committed to memory, and I followed the path of countless $80 stocks, the PepsiCos and the Mercks and the Waste Managements and the 3Ms of the world at the time, and I detected no pattern. Stocks that reach $80 go to $90. Stocks that go to $90 go to $100. Stocks that go to $100 go to $110. Stocks that go to $110 go to $120 and then split, usually by 3, and you sell them in splits. Oh, don’t worry, I knew my claim was ridiculous, even stupid. There was not even a hint of sharpness. At the time, Goldman Sachs had salespeople and partners with deep connections to the wealthiest people in New York. I respected the rules. I didn’t go looking for other people’s clients. But I attacked them at the fountains where they visited and dined and amused themselves. I was a bit like David Blaine knows Oz the Mentalist. I inevitably told them what would happen to specific stocks and damned if I didn’t always get it right. I also put my money where my mouth was. So here is the process. When I saw my “soft” targets – soft because I wanted to play by the rules and not steal any accounts – I opened my mind’s deck and removed the predictions about the blue chip routes I was predicting. Of course, I was dismissed as a buffoon, despite my Ivy League credentials, which surprised me then, because they shouldn’t, but they did. Then when I saw them again, and then they claimed the “list” that would make me so much money. Now, here’s what “Palantir” is about that moment. I was always right. He kept repeating the pattern. It lasted more than a year. However, one day, perhaps sensing an Icarus moment, I stopped. I declared victory. I had nothing more to say. The well was deliberately dried up. The people playing today’s Palantir game are those young “MEs.” They keep winning. I don’t think they’ll show the discipline I had to walk away from what seemed like a casino stuck in my direction because they don’t know what it’s like to take a beating like I did because I traded in the late 70s. and the very beginning of the 80s, a miserable time. I didn’t want the money back. These “people” today — to them, it’s the first glamorous rodeo where they’re making money, and guys like me either don’t understand or are too stupid to see all the money that’s being made. The irony of seeing it as a rebuke is completely lost on them. The idea that I would ever claim victory showed what a loser I was. Oh, and you know what else gets lost in them? The stock market crash of 1987. Each of these “$80 and $120” stocks declined. Every penny was returned. I’m still laughing. I hope they will be able to do the same. APP YTD Mountain Applovin is so similar to YTD Applovin that it could be in a Hall of Mirrors. At Applovin, this $117 billion company, buyers who join Applovin don’t know what it is. That makes it much better than PepsiCo or Waste Management. As people realize that it’s enterprise software for mobile game ads – like Netflix ad tier – and moving into e-commerce – like Shopify – then the stock can safely double before an analyst has a chance to buy it. either buy strongly or raise the price target to $400 or $500. These cowboys, who have never been kicked by a fragile horse, get up every morning at 3:45am ET – half an hour later than me (so your “skilled coder” still has an advantage) and love Applovin to higher prices. . It all works because they’re “early” on Applovin’, whatever the hell that means, and the insiders are so clueless they sell, they’re not in on the joke at all. Neither were Coca-Cola and Merck salesmen, damn fools 40 years ago. The Applovin game isn’t over until a heavyweight competitor enters and shrinks its margins. But that will take forever to make gin. Stocks don’t fall off their weight, so I can’t tell when the contest ends. Applovin is a real company with real opportunities and real earnings that you can put multiples on, as long as you look to 2026 or 2027 and justify even more aggressive price targets. It doesn’t look like the Super Micro Computer will have a problem with those evil visionaries who refuse to be on the run. What losers could be E & Y. Bottom line Why do we care? Why do I care about this? Maybe I’m just jealous that the Club’s wallet can’t get into this race before a musical chairs exit. Maybe because I’ve seen it before and know it’s not over until every graybeard loses his credibility calling the top? Those are not the reasons. It’s that it drives behavior that extends beyond what might be really cool companies like Palantir or Applovin, and leads us to GameStops and AMCs, shorted by smart hedge fund managers, and becomes a competition between hedgies versus newbies and upstarts. they are on the side of the righteous and the hedgies are on the side of Mephistopheles and can’t wait to separate the righteous from their money. In other words, we are in a precarious moment where speculative behavior becomes first and foremost and the speculators keep winning and winning and winning. As long as the market is even more of a casino than usual and any discussion of the possibilities of a Salesforce or an Nvidia seems outdated and silly. You never want to date and be a fool. So beware of this dark market that is happening alongside the one full of sunlight and disinfectants. It’s fine when it’s in a corner as it still is. But it’s not good when it’s the main event. When there is—and I fear it will be sooner rather than later—we will have to cut and cut until there is not enough for cress and washing. Until then, we just have to stay the course—hopefully only these two fires burn out—and we can resume our regularly scheduled bull market. We’ll discuss all of this as we examine the Club’s actions through this lens at noon ET on Wednesday at the December monthly meeting. (See a full list of Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust stocks here.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you’ll receive a trade alert before Jim trades. Jim will wait 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a share in his charitable trust portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he will wait 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION IS PURSUANT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, SUBJECT TO OUR DISCLAIMER. NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR OBLIGATION SHALL BE CREATED, OR CREATED, FOR ANY INFORMATION ENTERED INTO WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO SPECIFIC RESULTS OR PROFITS ARE GUARANTEED.
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You can’t ban foam. You can’t ban madness, especially when it pays. You can’t tell an insider or a big data analytics specialist palantir to take profits You can’t stop executives apple wine bailout here, and you can’t tell the buyers of that mobile game ad software company that it might not be as valuable as they think.
